Democrats will defend their majority in the US House of Representatives in the November 3 election, in which about one in 10 of the chamber’s 435 seats will be the subject of a competitive race, according to nonpartisan tracking services.
Political analysts agree that the Democrats’ control of the House is almost certainly safe. Republicans would need a net gain of 21 seats to regain the majority. Considering the math regarding the number of competitive Democratic-held seats, flipping the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year.
The questions that will be answered on Election Day: Will Republicans gain ground or will Democrats expand their majority?
Of the 44 races considered competitive, 27 currently have a Republican incumbent, 16 have a Democratic incumbent and one has an independent:
Arkansas’ 2nd District
Republican Representative French Hill is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from Black Democrat Joyce Elliott in this district that voted for Republican President Donald Trump by 10 percentage points in 2016. If elected, she would be the first Black representative from Arkansas.
Arizona’s 6th District
Representative David Schweikert, a conservative Republican whom the House recently reprimanded for misuse of campaign funds, faces a challenge from Democrat Hiral Tiperneni, a doctor and cancer researcher.
California’s 21st District
Representative TJ Cox, a Democrat, has a rematch with former Representative David Valadao, whom Cox defeated two years ago by just 862 votes.
California’s 25th District
Republican Representative Mike Garcia, a former Navy fighter pilot, defends the seat he won in a May special election in a rematch with Democrat Christy Smith, a member of the California legislature.
Congressional candidate and former Navy combat pilot Mike Garcia greets supporters in Simi Valley, California, on January 28, 2020 [File: Michael Blood/AP Photo] California’s 48th District
Representative Harley Rouda, a Democrat who flipped the district in 2018 by beating longtime Representative Dana Rohrabacher, is being challenged by Republican Michelle Steel, a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors.
Colorado’s 3rd District
Gun-rights activist Lauren Boebert, who told a conservative podcast last spring that she hopes QAnon “is real,” competes against Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush in this Republican-leaning district of western Colorado. Boebert defeated current Representative Scott Tipton in a primary.
Lauren Boebert, the Republican candidate for the US House seat in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, September 4, 2020, in Pueblo West, Colorado [File: David Zalubowski/AP Photo] Florida’s 15th District
Republican businessman Scott Franklin, who defeated the central Florida district’s Representative Ross Spano in the Republican primary, faces a former investigative journalist, Democrat Alan Cohn.
Florida’s 26th District
Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, an immigrant from Ecuador, takes on the Cuban-born mayor of Miami-Dade County, Republican Carlos Gimenez.
Georgia’s 7th District
After losing by a razor-thin margin in 2018, Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux battles Republican Rich McCormick for the seat currently held by Republican Representative Rob Woodall, who is retiring.
Iowa’s 1st District
Freshman Democrat Abby Finkenauer, who flipped the district two years ago, faces Iowa House member and former television news reporter Ashley Hinson, a Republican.
Rep. Abby Finkenauer, D-Iowa, left, and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, arrive at a campaign stop in Indianola, Iowa, January 18, 2020 [File: Andrew Harnik/AP Photo] Iowa’s 2nd District
Democrat Rita Hart takes on Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in this district, where Democratic Representative Dave Loebsack is retiring. The district voted for Trump in 2016.
Iowa’s 3rd District
Freshman Democratic Representative Cindy Axne is being challenged by Republican David Young, whom Axne narrowly defeated two years ago in a district that voted for Trump in 2016.
Illinois’ 13th District
Republican Representative Rodney Davis has a rematch with Democrat Betsy Londrigan, who came within a percentage point of unseating him in 2018.
Indiana’s 5th District
Former state Representative Christina Hale, a Democrat, is running against Republican state senator Victoria Spartz in this historically Republican stronghold where Republican Representative Susan Brooks is retiring.
Michigan’s 3rd District
Army veteran Peter Meijer, a Republican, faces off against immigration lawyer Hillary Scholten, a Democrat, in this district where independent Representative Justin Amash is retiring.
Minnesota’s 1st District
Freshman Republican Representative Jim Hagedorn is facing a repeat challenge from Democrat Dan Feehan, a former Army Ranger whom Hagedown narrowly defeated in 2018.
Minnesota’s 7th District
Longtime conservative Representative Collin Peterson, one of only two House Democrats who voted against Trump’s impeachment in 2019, faces a challenge from Minnesota’s former lieutenant governor, Republican Michelle Fischbach, in a district that voted strongly for Trump.
Missouri’s 2nd District
Representative Ann Wagner, a Republican and a former US ambassador to Luxembourg, is being challenged by Democratic state Senator Jill Schupp.
Jill Schupp is challenging incumbent Republican US Representative Ann Wagner in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District [Jeff Roberson/AP Photo] Montana’s At-Large District
Democrat Kathleen Williams, a former state legislator, faces off against Republican state auditor Matt Rosendale to replace Representative Greg Gianforte, a Republican who is retiring to run for governor. Williams lost to Gianforte two years ago by 4.7 points.
North Carolina’s 2nd District
A retired Army colonel, Republican Alan Swain, is running against Democrat Deborah Ross, a former state legislator, for the seat being vacated by Republican Representative George Holding, who retired after the district’s boundaries were redrawn.
North Carolina’s 6th District
Immigration lawyer Kathy Manning takes on local Republican party leader Joseph Lee Haywood in another district where the Republican incumbent, Representative Mark Walker, decided to retire after redistricting.
North Carolina’s 8th District
Republican Representative Richard Hudson, first elected in 2012, faces Patricia Timmons-Goodson, who was the first Black woman on the North Carolina Supreme Court.
Nebraska’s 2nd District
Republican Representative Don Bacon has a rematch with Democrat Kara Eastman, a progressive endorsed by the Justice Democrats who came within 2 points of unseating Bacon in 2018.
New Jersey’s 2nd District
Representative Jeff Van Drew, who was elected to Congress as a Democrat in 2018 but became a Republican after voting against impeaching Trump, faces Democrat Amy Kennedy. She is a former teacher who married into the famous US political family.
Congressman Jeff Van Drew, right, and challenger Amy Kennedy, left, during New Jersey’s 2nd congressional district debate, October 8, 2020, in Atlantic City, New Jersey [Edward Lea/Press of Atlantic City via AP] New Jersey’s 7th District
Democratic Representative Tom Malinowski, a former diplomat and human rights activist who flipped the district in 2018, is being challenged by Republican Thomas Kean Jr, whose father was governor of New Jersey.
New Mexico’s 2nd District
Freshman Democratic Representative Xochitl Torres Small has a rematch with Republican Yvette Herrell, who lost narrowly in 2018 and is endorsed by the conservative House Freedom Caucus’ political action committee.
New York’s 1st District
Republican Representative Lee Zeldin, a lawyer and Trump loyalist, faces a challenge from Democratic chemistry professor Nancy Goroff in this eastern Long Island district that voted for Trump in 2016 but had backed Democratic former President Barack Obama twice before.
New York’s 2nd District
Republican New York state Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino is running against a Black combat veteran, Democrat Jackie Gordon, for the seat held for 14 terms by retiring Republican Representative Peter King.
New York’s 11th District
Democratic Representative Max Rose, an Afghanistan war veteran who flipped the district in 2018, is in a contentious race with Republican state legislator Nicole Malliotakis.
Republican New York state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, left, talks to Trump supporter Jill Keane on Staten Island, New York, October 8, 2020 [File: Kathy Willens/AP Photo] New York’s 22nd District
Democratic Representative Anthony Brindisi has a rematch with the conservative Republican he unseated two years ago, Claudia Tenney.
New York’s 24th District
Republican Representative John Katko, who is seeking his fourth term, faces a second challenge from Democrat Dana Balter, a professor of public policy administration whom Katko defeated in 2018.
Ohio’s 1st District
Veteran Representative Steve Chabot, a congressman for 24 years, is being challenged by healthcare executive Kate Schroder.
Oklahoma’s 5th District
Democratic Representative Kendra Horn, who flipped the district two years ago when it was considered a Republican bastion, is being challenged by Republican state Senator Stephanie Bice.
Pennsylvania’s 1st District
Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent seeking his third term in a district that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in 2016, faces Democratic borough council member Christina Finello.
Pennsylvania’s 10th District
Republican Representative Scott Perry, a member of the House Freedom Caucus with the most conservative voting record in Pennsylvania, is being challenged by Democratic state auditor Eugene DePasquale.
South Carolina’s 1st District
Representative Joe Cunningham, who stunned Republicans in 2018 when he became the first Democrat to represent the coastal district in nearly four decades, faces Republican state Representative Nancy Mace, the first female graduate of the Citadel military college.
US House candidate Nancy Mace speaks at a campaign event in North Charleston, South Carolina, September 21, 2020 [File: Meg Kinnard/AP Photo] Texas’ 21st District
Conservative Republican Representative Chip Roy is being challenged by Wendy Davis, a Democratic former state senator who caught the national spotlight in 2013 by talking for more than 11 hours to temporarily stop an anti-abortion rights bill.
Texas’ 22nd District
Republican Representative Pete Olson is retiring. The Democrat he defeated two years ago, former diplomat Sri Kulkarni, is running again, this time against Republican Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls.
Texas’ 23rd District
Republican Representative Will Hurd is retiring from this district bordering Mexico. The Democrat he barely beat in 2018, former Air Force intelligence officer Gina Ortiz Jones, is running against Navy veteran Tony Gonzales, a Republican who was endorsed by Trump.
Texas’ 24th District
Former Trump administration official Beth Van Duyne, a Republican, and Afro-Latina Candace Valenzuela, a Democrat, are competing in this district located between Dallas and Fort Worth, where incumbent Republican Representative Kenny Marchant is retiring.
Candace Valenzuela, Democratic candidate in the Texas’ 24th Congressional District campaigns for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, October 13, 2020, in Dallas, Texas [LM Otero/AP Photo] Utah’s 4th District
Utah’s only Democrat in Congress, Ben McAdams, a moderate who flipped his district two years ago, faces Black Republican Burgess Owens, a former player in the National Football League.
Virginia’s 2nd District
Freshman Representative Elaine Luria, a Democrat and former nuclear-trained surface warfare officer in the Navy, is being challenged by Scott Taylor, a former Navy Seal whom she defeated in 2018.
Virginia’s 5th District
Black Democrat Cameron Webb, who is both a lawyer and a physician, is competing against Republican Bob Good. Good, a social conservative, got the nomination after Republicans defeated current Representative Denver Riggleman, who had officiated at a same-sex wedding.
Virginia’s 7th District
Representative Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer who flipped this historically Republican stronghold west of Richmond two years ago, is running against Nick Freitas, a former Army Green Beret.